New Delhi, Feb. 11 Exports have managed to stay in the positive territory for the third consecutive month, with shipments in January 2010 growing by 11.5 per cent from the same month last year to $14.34 billion, thanks to the demand revival in traditional destinations like the US and European Union.
Announcing the January export numbers, the Commerce and Industry Minister, Mr Anand Sharma, however, cautioned against any abrupt withdrawal of stimulus saying such a move will undermine the confidence of exporters and the robust recovery of exports. Besides, the recovery in global economy is weak and stimulus-driven, he said.
The Minister added that, “Between now and March 31 (end of fiscal 2009-10), we hope to maintain and further strengthen the growth, which will help us in registering healthy export figures and reducing the gap (with exports in the previous financial year) substantially.”
Mr Sharma said the recovery is not uniform, pointing out that the sectors that are continuing to do badly include engineering, textile, jute manufacturing, carpets, handicrafts and leather. He said while, fruits and vegetables, marine, man-made fibres and tobacco sectors did well, those that have shown some improvement include tea, coffee, basmati rice, cashew, gems and jewellery, drugs and pharmaceuticals, plastics and petroleum.
“The demand in major economies is still weak. Given the slow recovery of traditional markets, it will take time for the demand there to return to the pre-recession times,” he said.
The Minister said many labour-intensive export sectors are showing nil or slow recovery and some of these sectors have been doing badly for the last 15 months.
“Therefore, we need to take a cautious and calibrated view (on withdrawal of stimulus). This is what I recommended to the Finance Minister. We have to see that all the sectors move strongly into the positive growth territory. The Finance Minister (Mr Pranab Mukherjee) is an experienced leader and he has understood our concerns and has taken them on board,” he said.
Exports for April 2009-January 2010 were $131.92 billion. The Commerce Secretary, Dr Rahul Khullar, said exports in 2009-10 would be around $165-175 billion. In 2008-09, exports were $186 billion. In April 2008-January 2009, exports were $144.27 billion.
Exports had contracted for 13 consecutive months from September 2008, the maximum fall being 39.4 per cent in May 2009 as the demand in major markets abroad plunged following the global financial crisis.
But exports started the turnaround in November 2009 with an 18.2 per cent growth and followed it up in December with a 9.3 per cent growth.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
The Minister said the country's industrial production growth would be in double digits during December. The growth in industrial production had jumped to 11.7 per cent in November, a 25-month high. The detailed industrial production data is slated to be released by the Government on Friday.
Following the financial crisis, industrial output had declined to 0.2 per cent in December 2008.
Source : Business Line