India Pepper to Witness Volatile Trend .

MUMBAI (Commodity Online): Absence of fresh strong report kept trend sideways for Pepper as traders wait for exports to pick up at these lower levels. Some demand was noted which is likely to support the market sentiments to some extent.

Fall in global market rates in Vietnam due to anticipated higher stock availability had created a bearish impact in Indian markets also but traders expect exports to rise in coming weeks that could support prices. New crop to arrive in Jan-Feb.

Arrival of the new crop in India is expected during year-end. Slight improved production prospects from Kerala and Karnataka and arrival of the new crop could limit the uptrend
Exports and domestic demand from North India remained good.

Traders expect that with low stocks, lower global production and rising export demand, trend is likely to remain Bullish for the commodity from a medium to long term point of view.

Strengthening in the Dollar vs Re rates could have beneficial impact on the export front. But short term correction possibilities remain.

Good demand from Gulf countries supporting the rates. Demand from China and West Asia also reported.

IPC has predicted 2011 crop to be lower by 2% at 309,952 MT. Carryforward stocks are expected to decline marginally to 94,582 MT vs 95,442 MT. Global exports have declined by 11% to 237,650 MT. Indian production expected to decline to 48,000 MT.

Vietnam is having low stocks as per reports. The production there too is expected to fall this year as per some estimates. Brazil and Indonesian crop expected to be lower. Low carryover stock in Brazil and Indonesia is likely to raise exports here in coming months.

Reports of farmers shifting to other more profitable crops have affected the production aspects for the crop in India.

Latest reports from Spice Board of India indicates the likely Pepper exports for the period April-Sept 2011 have risen by 22% to 11250 MT in 2011 from 9250 MT in 2010 same period.

Source : commodityonline.com