India May Delay Lifting Curbs on Sugar Exports Until January, Sucden Says.

India, the second-biggest sugar producer, is unlikely to permit free exports until January as the government awaits a “dependable estimate” of production, according to Sucden India Pvt.

“They won’t have a realistic estimate of the crop at least until January,” Managing Director Yatin Wadhwana said today in a phone interview from New Delhi. “It’s too early to decide what output you may have as estimates rise and fall every day.”

A delay in ending curbs on shipments may help support a rally that drove up raw-sugar prices in New York to near the highest in 29 years amid concern that supplies from Brazil and India, the top producer, may be too low to meet demand.

Futures for March delivery fell as much as 2.5 percent to 27.25 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. today. Still, prices may advance next week on concern that India might limit shipments to bolster domestic inventories after rains damaged its cane crop, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The government will make a decision after getting “dependable estimates” on output and after assessing domestic demand, Junior Food Minister K.V. Thomas said in a statement to parliament today. Shipments have been regulated after drought damaged crops last season.

Production in Maharashtra, India’s biggest producer, fell 29 percent in the season that began Oct. 1 after heavy rainfall in the main growing areas slowed harvests, the Maharashtra State Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation Ltd. Managing Director Prakash Naiknavare said on Nov. 22.

India may probably produce 23.27 million tons, 8.7 percent less than predicted by industry groups, according to data from farmers interviewed by SGS SA for Bloomberg News. Output may be 24.5 million tons, Thomas told lawmakers Nov. 19.

Crushing Delayed

A late start to the cane-crushing season is unlikely to affect the overall output, the Press Trust of India cited Farm Minister Sharad Pawar as saying. Mills make up for the deficit in the “course of time,” he told lawmakers in a statement.

“Our experience suggest that more rain tends to improve cane yields,” Sucden’s Wadhwana said. “With sunny weather, recovery will also improve and I don’t see any reason to change our estimate of production.”

Sucden expects production of 25.8 million tons and exports of about 2 million to 3 million tons in the year to Sept. 30.

Source : bloomberg.com