| Date: |
08-11-2012 |
| Subject: |
USDA Post Raises India 2011-12 Rice Exports Estimate 4% to 10.4 Million Tons; Prices Predicted to Ri |
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The USDA Post in India has increased the country’s total rice export estimate for the MY2011-12 (October to September) to 10.4 million tons, up about 4% from the USDA official estimates of 10 million tons.
The Post increased the export estimate after local trade sources said that the country’s exports had already reached about 9.69 million tons during October 2011 to August 2012 (including around 6.45 million tons non-basmati and 3.24 million tons basmati rice) and that exports have been robust in the last quarter of the MY2011-12 thanks to low prices.
However, prices of non-basmati rice are likely to increase by around $10-$15 per ton after December due to the impact of government’s higher minimum support price this year.
The Post said that higher prices will reduce India’s competitiveness in the international market and lower rice exports to 7.25 million tons in 2012-13, down about 30% from the 10.4 million tons forecast for 2011-12.
Rice production and acreage estimates for 2012-13 remain unchanged from USDA official estimates of 99 million tons and 43 million hectares respectively. The Post also said that sufficient rice stocks will allow the Indian government to continue rice exports without any restrictions on price or quantity in the coming months.
Source : blackseagrain.net
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