Vietnam is expected to harvest its biggest coffee crop in four years following good rainfall, which may help to alleviate tight supply and put downward pressure on global prices.
Output is set to increase to 1.76 million tons for the 2025-26 season, according to the median estimate of seven traders, producers, exporters and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. That would be 6% higher than last year, and equivalent to about 29.4 million 60-kilogram bags.
“The coffee trees are currently in good condition, with the harvest set to begin next month,” said Trinh Duc Minh, the chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association in Dak Lak province, Vietnam’s biggest growing region. “The weather has been favorable for the crop, with abundant rainfall.”
Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta, the variety often used in instant coffee and espressos. A bigger flow of beans into the market could help plug global shortages following poorer-than-expected crops the previous two seasons, and help to soften prices that skyrocketed 42% last month.
Coffee prices have seen further swings this week. Concerns over tight Brazilian supplies, US tariffs and profit-taking sent futures for the arabica variety in New York near a record, before whipping back, driving volatility to a four-year high. Robusta also climbed sharply in London at the start of the week before sliding.“Although market concerns have now shifted toward a potential shortage of arabica, increased robusta availability in Vietnam and Brazil offers roasters a more affordable and accessible alternative,” said Laleska Moda, an analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets. “We’re also observing a notable shift in demand toward robusta this year.”
A harvest of 29.4 million 60-kilogram bags this season would make it Vietnam’s biggest since 2021-22, according to the US Department of Agriculture, which forecasts 31 million bags for 2025-26. The survey estimates ranged from 1.62 million tons to 1.9 million tons, or 27 million to 32 million bags.
Domestic Consumption
Vietnamese farmers have invested more in crop management due to higher prices, and are now preparing for the final round of fertilization ahead of the harvest. Some have even expanded their cultivation area, or switched to coffee from durian, according to EaPok Coffee JSC, a small Dak Lak-based producer, which expects its output to climb by 30% from a year ago.
Still, ongoing weather conditions remain crucial to the overall crop. Too much rain during harvesting could disrupt drying, delay shipments and threaten bean quality. And despite the forecast for higher production, rising domestic use could crimp exports, according to Daryl Kryst, Singapore-based vice president of soft and agricultural commodities in Asia for StoneX Group Inc.
He sees local consumption surging about 22% to 4.9 million bags in the 2025-26 season, adding that global stockpiles remain tight, which will keep prices elevated in the near term.
Source Name: Economic Times