Nvidia is back in action with its China sales — and the market is cheering. The chip giant has received a green light from the U.S. government to resume exports of its advanced H20 AI chips to China, according to multiple sources including Reuters, and the Financial Times. The announcement triggered a strong market response, with Nvidia’s stock price jumping $7.33 (4.47%) in pre-market trading to $171.40.
AMD also rode the wave, gaining $4.65 (3.18%) to hit $150.89 pre-market. The news, which signals a potential easing in U.S.–China chip tensions, is drawing serious attention from investors, analysts, and AI industry leaders.
TSMC and SMCI also ticked up; TSMC ahead of Q2 earnings, and SMCI thanks to its Nvidia server partnerships.
Could Nvidia’s new greenlight for China shipments send its stock to $200 sooner than expected?
Nvidia’s comeback in China might be just the catalyst it needs to push its stock toward the $200 mark—and here’s why the market is reacting so strongly:
Pre-market jump: Nvidia stock surged 4.47% to $171.40, gaining $7.33 after the U.S. government confirmed it will grant export licenses for the H20 AI chip to Chinese customers.
Huge revenue rebound: Nvidia had taken a $4.5 billion inventory charge in Q2 after being blocked from selling the H20 in China. Resuming shipments could restore a big portion of those lost sales.
China’s tech giants buying fast: Firms like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are already lining up with orders on Nvidia’s whitelist.
New RTX Pro GPU release: Alongside the H20 comeback, Nvidia launched a new RTX Pro chip, built on the Blackwell architecture, specifically to meet U.S. export rules for industrial use.
Broader chip market rally: AMD stock rose 3.18% to $150.89 in pre-market trading, while TSMC and Super Micro Computer also saw gains as investor confidence returned to the AI chip trade.
Big picture outlook: With geopolitical risk still looming but signs of a thaw in U.S.–China chip relations, Nvidia’s reopening of its China pipeline could drive stronger Q3 sales and give bulls a reason to eye $200 as the next target.
What does the export approval mean for Nvidia's future revenue?
This export resumption could mark a major financial turnaround for Nvidia. Earlier this year, the company had to write off $4.5 billion in inventory after the U.S. placed tight restrictions on the sale of high-end AI chips to China. The H20, originally designed to comply with previous export rules, had been held back after additional guidance tightened the rules in late 2024.
Now, the Trump administration has reportedly assured Nvidia that it will grant the required licenses to export the H20 chip. Nvidia is currently filing the paperwork, and shipments could begin in the coming weeks.
If shipments resume smoothly, Nvidia could recover a significant portion of the $4.5 billion in lost sales, much of which was tied to demand from Chinese tech firms like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba, who are already lining up orders, according to Reuters.
How are Chinese tech firms responding to the H20 news?
The reaction in China has been immediate. Major tech companies are scrambling to get on Nvidia’s so-called “whitelist”—a vetted list of approved buyers eligible for H20 shipments. According to The Economic Times and ABC News, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang is currently in Beijing, reportedly meeting with tech influencers and business leaders to fast-track the process.
Chinese firms see the H20 chip as critical for powering AI workloads, including natural language processing, image recognition, and large-scale data modeling. With China’s domestic chip alternatives still struggling to catch up, Nvidia remains the top-tier provider, even under restricted sales conditions.
Meanwhile, Nvidia isn’t just betting on the H20. It’s also introducing a new "RTX Pro" GPU, designed specifically for export-compliant AI tasks in China. Built on its Blackwell architecture, the RTX Pro will target industrial use cases like smart factories and automated logistics, as confirmed by Tech Xplore and El País.
Meanwhile, Nvidia isn’t just betting on the H20. It’s also introducing a new "RTX Pro" GPU, designed specifically for export-compliant AI tasks in China. Built on its Blackwell architecture, the RTX Pro will target industrial use cases like smart factories and automated logistics, as confirmed by Tech Xplore and El País.
What does this mean for the broader chip market and rivals like AMD?
The broader AI chip ecosystem is already reacting. Nvidia’s export approval appears to be a rising tide that’s lifting multiple boats. AMD, a key competitor in the AI GPU space, saw its shares rise over 3% in pre-market trading.
Broadcom
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC)
Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
TSMC, in particular, is gaining attention ahead of its Q2 earnings report, while SMCI is benefiting from its ongoing Nvidia server partnerships.
According to MarketWatch, the export license news is also boosting investor sentiment across the tech and semiconductor sectors, especially as it points to renewed demand from the world’s second-largest economy.
What’s the stock outlook for Nvidia in the short and long term?
Short-Term Projection (Q3 2025):
Nvidia’s current pre-market price of $171.40—up 4.47%—reflects strong investor optimism following the H20 export greenlight. If shipment licenses are approved within July as expected, analysts foresee Nvidia retesting its previous record highs around $174–$177, possibly even pushing toward the $180 mark before Q3 ends.
The chipmaker could also benefit from an influx of backlogged orders from Chinese giants like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent. If early deliveries begin by August, Nvidia may exceed revenue estimates in its next earnings report, pushing the stock further.
Any delay in license approvals
U.S.–China tensions re-escalating
Shipment volume caps or added compliance checks
Long-Term Projection (2025–2026):
Over the next 6 to 12 months, Nvidia’s stock has the potential to cross $200, especially if:
H20 and RTX Pro sales scale in China
Global AI demand continues rising
New GPU lines under the Blackwell architecture drive growth
Several Wall Street firms, including those cited by Reuters and Financial Times, already project Nvidia’s FY2025 and FY2026 revenues to grow 20–30% year-over-year, assuming China remains a viable market. The company’s $4 trillion market cap could stretch even higher if export channels remain open.
In the broader picture, Nvidia is positioned as the backbone of global AI infrastructure, and with supply chains stabilizing and geopolitical doors slightly ajar, its long-term trajectory looks increasingly bullish.
What’s the long-term outlook for AI chipmakers?
The decision to allow H20 shipments isn’t just a win for Nvidia — it could reshape the entire AI chip supply chain in 2025 and beyond. For now, Nvidia appears poised to regain its footing in China, a crucial market it can't afford to lose.
As Business Insider and the Wall Street Journal noted, this moment may signal a strategic thaw in U.S.–China AI cooperation, even if only temporary. At the same time, it shows how critical Nvidia’s hardware has become to the global AI race.
From a revenue standpoint, recovering even half of the blocked $4.5 billion would significantly boost Nvidia’s FY2025 performance. Investors will also be watching for how RTX Pro sales unfold in China’s industrial automation sector — another emerging growth area.
If all goes as planned, Nvidia's next earnings report could show a marked improvement in both top-line revenue and investor confidence, restoring momentum that had been dampened by geopolitical roadblocks.
FAQs:
Q1: Why is Nvidia stock up in pre-market trading?
Nvidia shares rose after the U.S. cleared H20 AI chip sales to China.
Q2: How did AMD stock react to Nvidia’s China update?
AMD stock gained 3.18% pre-market due to improved AI chip trade outlook.
Source Name : Economic Times