Kochi, Nov. 12 Even as cashew exports picked up in October on a decline in unit value and rise in demand probably due to the winter months, the total shipments during April-October 2009 fell by 7.6 per cent from that of the same period last fiscal.
Total exports during the first seven months of the current fiscal stood at 62,367 tonnes valued at Rs 1,673.12 crore ($384.01 million) as against 67,498 tonnes worth Rs 1,844.46 crore ($381.64 million) in the same period the previous season. The average unit value during April-October 2009 was Rs 268.27 a kg as against Rs 273.26, Cashew Export Promotion Council of India (CEPC) sources told Business Line.
Us recovery
Shipments in October were 10,101 tonnes valued at Rs 271.20 crore at unit value of Rs 268.49 a kg as against 8,003 tonnes valued at Rs 234.26 crore at a unit value of Rs 292.72 a kg. Industry sources said that recovery in the US economy has paved the way for increased consumption and that had reflected on the exports. Besides, the unit value has also declined from the levels in October/November 2008, they said.
Total imports of raw cashew nuts shot up during the current fiscal (April-October) by 23.5 per cent to 5,67,699 tonnes valued at Rs 2,144.51 crore ($492.20 million) from 4,59,655 tonnes valued at Rs 1,928.83 crore ($399.10 million). The average unit value this fiscal was Rs 37.78 a kg as against Rs 41.96 during April-October last year.
OVERSEAS TREND
According to trading sources in Mumbai, “in the last few weeks, some US buyers have covered some quantities for the first quarter of 2010 (some bought up to June 2010 as well). They would probably have bought more but very few processors were willing to take large positions”.
The raw cashew nut (RCN) market, they said, is quiet with no change in prices. Most domestic processors have adequate stocks but many medium and small processors in Vietnam are working on thin RCN inventories (they are now picking up the remaining quantities in West Africa). Indonesian prices continue to be high in the absence of availability from other origins. Tanzania has not started sales yet — may be, they will start next week.
Arrivals have started in Mozambique but there is no indication yet as to when exports will be possible.
Slow arrivals started in some areas of Brazil and the long delay is causing some concern, Mr Pankaj N. Sampat of a Mumbai-based Cashew Trading Company said. On the buying side, there has been a slight change in pattern in the last few weeks – apart from the normal buying for near-bys, some buyers have been covering quantities few months ahead. But the volume is not large for two reasons – buyers are being cautious as they are not sure about consumption trends and sellers are wary of selling too much now when replacement RCN availability is limited, he said.
If buyers are able to cover reasonable volumes now, they may be able to stay low profile in the first quarter of 2010 and this will keep the market at or below the lower end of the current range when the three large northern crops are harvested. But “if 2010 starts with a need for US and Europe to buy large volumes, then we might see prices firming up a bit in the first quarter. In turn, this could mean a rush to buy RCN when the 2010 crops start. That would mean a very difficult year for all segments of the chain”, he said.
Overall, “we expect market to be firm in the short-term with potential for volatility in the medium term and uncertain prospects for the long term”, Mr Pankaj added.
Source : Business Line