NEW DELHI: A majority of exporters anticipate flat growth, or a decline, in turnover in financial year 2009-10, according to a survey conducted
by industry body Ficci.
Of those who participated in the survey, 61% said that they expect exports to decline, or at the best remain at last year’s level. Engineering goods, gems & jewellery, chemicals, marine products and tyres are among the segments that expect negative, or zero, growth in exports during the current fiscal.
Exports of drugs & pharmaceuticals, however, are expected to rise by more than 13% during the year, the survey revealed. It also highlighted that processed food and agro-items, including oil meals, besides sports goods, apparels and a section of the leather & footwear industry are expecting a modest recovery, that is 1-5% growth, in exports in the new fiscal.
Exports from India have been severely hit due to the current global economic slowdown and declining demand from the developed markets. The US and European Union together constitute more than one-third of India’s total exports. Demand is also said to be contracting from the markets in West Asia, the Asean region and Japan, accounting for about 15%, 2.4% and 10% share, respectively. Decline in demand was evident in the second-half of the last fiscal, the survey pointed.
According to the survey, engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, rubber products, glass and ceramics are expected to register double-digit export growth in the year ended March 2009.
“Growth in 2008-09 had been largely possible due to 46% growth in the first half. Thus, it does not correctly reflect the latest export trends,” the survey added.
Exporters, however, say that the depreciating rupee against the US dollar has had a positive impact on exports. Among the respondents, 56% said that the sliding rupee has had moderately positive effect on exports with another 14% saying it has had a strongly positive effect.
The remaining 30%, which included those who ship agro and related products, engineering goods, gems & jewellery, leather, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles & garments, tyres and sports goods, indicated negligible impact of the depreciating rupee.
Source : The Economic Times