The country's merchandise exports, after months in the negative zone, turned positive in November 2009 logging a growth rate of 18 per cent in dollar terms as compared to the year-ago period.
Briefing newspersons on the latest information on the trade front, the Commerce Secretary, Mr Rahul Khullar, said the country shipped goods worth $13.2 billion in November 2009 against $11.16 billion a year ago.
However, hedging his remarks with “circumspection”, Mr Khullar said “exports in November have turned positive not due to a great shift in demand but because of base-side effect, as exports were at rock-bottom level last year this time”.
Mr Khullar pointed out that the country's exports during April-November 2009 at $104.25 billion are still 22.23 per cent lower than the figure in the corresponding period of 2008 at $134.2 billion.
He said “one should not get carried away by the November number to jump to any conclusion as you may end up making the wrong prognosis”.
Stating that it is too early to claim that “we are out of the woods”, Mr Khullar said the January-March quarter holds the key to deciding how exports would fare for the whole year. However, he said, the country's merchandise exports would be in the range of $165 billion to $170 billion this fiscal, as compared with $182.6 billion in 2008-09.
But in the remaining four months the exports should be between $13 billion and $15 billion a month, the Commerce Secretary said.
Even as a decomposition exercise is not fully done, he said there has been strong pick-up in export of petroleum products, gems and jewellery and readymade garment segments.
Mr Khullar said gems and jewellery exports jumped from $1.6 billion in November 2008 to $2.15 billion in November 2009, and there were increases in the export of basic chemicals and iron ore. Readymade garments exports fetched $727 billion in November this year, against $686 billion in November 2008.
Source : Business Line