Exports, imports down in May.

The combined trade growth for the first two months was down 31.2 per cent in dollar terms. Provisional figures for May put exports at $11 billion, down by 29 per cent from $15.5 billion in the same month of 2008, while for the first two months of the current fiscal they were down 31.2 per cent at $21.7 billion compared with $31.6 billion in the corresponding previous period.

Yet, the Commerce Secretary, Mr Rahul Khullar, told Business Line that “one has to wait for the first quarter figure of exports, which would be out on August 1,” to claim there has been a declining trend in exports. He, however, maintained that the collapse in demand in developed countries was mainly behind the slide.

With the world economy likely to see signs of recovery after the second quarter of the calendar, India’s exports could see some improvement after September.

In rupee terms, exports declined 18.4 per cent in May at Rs 53,435 crore against Rs 65,506 crore in the corresponding previous month, while that for April-May, at Rs 1,07,214 crore, were lower 17.4 per cent (Rs 1,29,846 crore).

Imports in May at $16.2 billion were down 39 per cent from $26.7 billion in May 2008, while for April-May they were down 38 per cent, at $31.9 billion over the 2008 period. In rupee terms, too, imports in May, at Rs 78,682 crore, were down 30 per cent (Rs 1,12,405 crore), while for April-May, they were down 25.6 per cent at Rs 1,57,514 crore (Rs 2,11,754 crore).

Oil imports in May, at $4 billion, were 60.6 per cent lower than in May 2008 ($10.5 billion), mainly because this time last year global crude oil prices were galloping. Oil imports in April-May, at $7.7 billion, were 59.6 per cent lower than in the corresponding previous period ($19.2 billion).

Non-oil imports in May at $12 billion were 25.4 per cent lower than in May 2008 ($16.1 billion), while for April-May, at $24.1 billion, were 25 per cent lower compared with the $32.2 billion in the same period of 2008.

A redeeming feature was the substantial reduction in the trade deficit in April-May, at $10.2 billion, against $19.8 billion in the first two months of 2008.

Talking to reporters, the Commerce Minister, Mr Anand Sharma, said that June exports would also suffer a decline of 30 per cent over a year earlier. “The declining trend in exports is across all sectors. We have recommended certain incentives for exporters such as increased rate of interest subvention and cut in export credit and hope the Budget will contain some relief for export sectors.”

In a statement, the Federation of Indian Export Organisations President, Mr A. Sakthivel, said that “if the government provides necessary support in Budget, exports may show positive growth from October.”