NEW DELHI: Indian imports are declining faster than exports. By value, the imports in March 2009 are 30% less than the same month last year,
according to early estimates made by the commerce department.
This will be the third consecutive month showing fall in imports. Analysts say the sharp dip could be attributed to a decline in the country’s oil bill, slowdown in industrial activity, fall in global prices for commodities and industrial intermediates as well as a drop in exports.
Quick estimates for March 2009, calculated by the directorate general of foreign trade (DGFT), show a 32% drop to $16.05 billion, compared to imports worth $23.57 billion in March 2008. Imports fell 16% in January 2009 and 23% the following month.
However, as import grew fast in the first three quarters of 2008-09, the final figure for the fiscal will be $288 billion, which is 14.5% higher than the previous year’s $251 billion.
Exports, which fell continuously in the second half of 2008-09, recorded an even lower growth of 4% at $169 billion.
“While we do not have disaggregated figures at the moment, we can safely assume that like the previous two months, a part of the decline in imports would be due to a sharp fall in the oil bill. However, trends also suggest a substantial fall in the non-oil imports which could be due to a slowdown in industrial activity,” a commerce ministry official handling trade data said, requesting anonymity.
Imports have fallen across sectors ranging from machinery and electronics to cotton and metals in January and February.
“The fall in imports has not been unexpected mainly due to the fact that exports have been falling over the past six months and a substantial proportion of our imports are inputs for exports,” said Nagesh Kumar, director general, Research and Information System (RIS) for developing countries.
Falling prices of commodities worldwide are also contributing to a lower value of imports, he said. “Prices of a number of commodities have come down including steel, which is a major ingredient in machinery and auto products. As a result, the import value of the products would also decline,” he added.
The government will officially come out with revised trade figures for March 2009 either at the end of the month or early next month.
Source : The Economic Times