According to a report drafted for ministers of the G-8 nations, the world faces “a permanent food crisis and global instability unless countries act now to feed a surging population by doubling agricultural output”. In the 1940s, mother earth supported a global population of about 2.5 billion people which has swelled to over 6 billion today and is expected to peak at 9 billion by 2050. After thousands of years the world’s population reached 3 billion, but within a century, the population will treble.
As a result, the per capita availability of arable land, which was 1 acre just a few decades back, will decrease to one third of an acre by 2050. Between 2004 and 2009, the price of basic consumption items such as cereals, pulses and edible oils has doubled, even trebled. Worse, the average price of food crops is set to climb even further — during 2008 to 2017, wheat, maize and skimmed milk powder prices could be higher by 40-60% when compared to 1998-2007.
The demand-supply gap for food in India shows that in the short to medium term, supply will meet demand requirements; from 2021 demand will outstrip supply for cereals, pulses, edible oil and sugar. Food commodity prices are likely to be high and volatile for the next 10-15 years. India is in a precarious situation with pulses in particular. The problem has been worsening gradually and is becoming a silent emergency. Like the proverbial frog in the heating water, all those who ought to be concerned may not be even fully aware of it. Indians will suffer the most if India does not find a way out of the pulses crisis, because other societies do not depend as much as us on pod-bearing plants for proteins.
India is the largest producer of pulses in the world, yet it is also the largest importer of pulses. Going from being the largest producer or exporter to becoming the largest importer is not a new experience for this country. In the 1920s, India was among the largest producers and exporters of oil seeds in the world; today we are the largest importer. In the 1950s, India was by far the largest exporter of tea; today Sri Lanka and Kenya have increased their exportable surplus and India’s market share in the global tea trade is significantly lower.
What is the issue on pulses? India is more vegetarian than any other society in the world. Consequently, our dietary dependence on pulses as the main source of protein is enormous. Pulses are also the most economic source of protein. The World Health Organisation recommends 80 grams of pluses per person per day and India will consume about 38 million tonnes (mt) a year by 2018. Compare this projected demand with the current Indian production of 15 mt a year and a worldwide production of 55 mt. The contours of the crisis become clear. India would have to double yields or acreage or look at a mix of both.
Source : The Economic Times