India to Begin Soybean Imports From 2015.

NUSA DUA, Sept 19 (Reuters) Domestic demand for soybeans in India, fueled by a growing population and economic wealth in the world's fifthlargest producer, will result in the country becoming a net importer by 2015, the United Soybean Board said on Monday.

India is the world's fifthbiggest soybean producer after the United States, Brazil, Argentina and China, and it contributes about 5 percent to global output.

"Longterm, India has got a shot," Jim Call, international marketing chairman of producers' lobby group, United Soybean Board, told Reuters.

"I'm talking 2015, that they could actually start importing soybeans for the first time.

"It's due to population growth, economy growing, people moving into the middle class, and their own production being limited as far as their landbase."

India's domestic demand driven economy grew 7.7 percent in the AprilJune period, its weakest pace in six quarters, but outperformed even gloomier predictions. India's soybean output in 2011/12 is likely to rise 10.5 percent to 10.5 million tonnes as farmers plant a larger area with the crop and rains are adequate, a senior industry official said last month.

The country is likely to export 4.1 million tonnes of soymeal in the current crop year ending in September, sharply higher than 2.2 million tonnes a year ago.

"Everybody has been looking at India for many years, and they've been selfsufficient and an exporter of beans into that Asian market," Call said on the sidelines of the Southeast Asia US Agricultural Cooperators Conference.

"Once they don't export into that Asian market anymore, then other markets will open up too.

"India demand will be in poultry, dairy and they have a vegetarian diet, so they consume huge amounts of soybeans in their foods directly. They are also huge soybean oil users because they fry a lot of stuff," he added.

Indian soymeal is preferred by Asian buyers over Latin American supplies as it is derived from nongenetically modified soybean.

Geographical proximity also makes Indian soymeal less expensive for Asian importers.

Global 2011/12 soybean production is likely to reach about 265 million tonnes, Oil World forecasts, with the U.S. 2011/12 soybean crop likely to fall to 88.5 million tonnes from 90.6 million tonnes in 2010/11.

Nearly 60 percent of U.S. soybean exports go to China, with other large markets being Mexico, Japan and Taiwan.

"For the new crop coming in... I'm fairly positive about the bean crop," said Minnesotabased Call. "We're going to come in at fairly good numbers, comparing this to corn anyway.

"We're going to come in, about average. In my mind, we're not going to have a record crop, by any means." FIRM OUTLOOK

Last week, the U.S. Agriculture Department estimated soybean production at 3.085 billion bushels, compared with trade estimates for 3.032 billion bushels and its August estimate of 3.056 billion.

November soy was down 0.5 percent to $13.48 a bushel at 0547 GMT.

"If they start coming out with some really low numbers on corn, that will increase corn plantings because prices will go up," said Call, who has been involved in the marketing of the soybean industry for about 10 years.

Strong demand from developing Asian countries such as China, the world's secondlargest corn consumer, coupled with the hottest summer in over half a century in top producer the United States, has pushed Chicago Board of Trade corn futures to record highs recently.

"That means bean acres will be down, so beans could be fairly strong," Call added on soybeans.

"I would say in that $13$14 range for the next six months for sure. It's hard to predict any further than that."

Source : biz.thestar.com.m