India upbeat on coffee export but world trails.

World coffee exports in 12 months (Nov/09 to Oct/10) have decreased by 4.3% to 93.6 million bags compared to 97.8 million bags in the same period last year while India’s exports has shown a surge of 29.8 million bags against 21 million bags reported last year, International Coffee Organization reported.

In India the arabica and robusta break up is 99,500 MT (32%) and 208,500 MT (68%) respectively. Comparing to other major exporting countries arabica production hit 4,900 MT (5.18%) and robusta production to 13,500 MT (6.92%) as expected in post monsoon forecast of 2009.

This will boost India’s position on international market as Robusta-coffee futures in London have jumped 44 percent this year, advancing to $2,098 a metric ton on Nov. 9, the highest level in more than two years.

The tighter coffee market will leave stocks of the Arabica variety “fairly low” entering the 2011-2012 seasons, VM Group said in a quarterly report published with ABN Amro on Nov. 30.

Good and well distributed rainfall during October 2009 to March 2010 and excellent blossom backed by showers, supported higher production in the major growing regions of India .Moreover, continued high and stable prices encouraged better crop husbandry practices by plantation owners contributing to higher production.

In world export, a marginal increase has reported in one month period of 7.85 million bags in October 2010, compared with 7.51 million in October 2009.

Exports of Arabica totaled 61.8 million bags, unchanged from last year whereas Robusta exports declined to 31.8 million bags compared to 36 million bags last year, said the organization.

Countries exporting significant volume of Green Arabica and Green Robusta have shown break down of export in October 2010.

Brazilian exports in 12 months (Nov/09 to Oct/10) fell to 28. 2 million bags compared to 28. 5 million bags in last year. Arabica production from Brazil, the world’s largest producer, declined as its trees “went into the ‘off’ period of their biannual cycle. Brazil’s coffee production is subject to an alternating cycle, in which trees produce less every other year.

Coffee output for the 2010-2011 crop years in Vietnam, the world’s biggest grower of the Robusta variety used in instant drinks, declined about 20 percent from the previous harvest of 1.1 million tons, Luong Van Tu, chairman of the Vietnam Coffee & Cocoa Association, said at the conference.

“We have had both droughts and rains, and the unexpected rains lately have delayed the harvesting and affected the crops in many areas,” Luong Van Tu, chairman of the Vietnam Coffee & Cocoa Association.

The Vietnamese coffee harvest, which typically starts on Oct. 1, was delayed by at least a month because of rain. Though Coffee-producing countries are expected to earn a record $16.5 billion from exports in the 2010 Supply problems in many producing countries have prevented exporters from taking advantage of a surge in prices.

Source : commodityonline.com