Jeera Arrivals To Weaken, Pepper On Profit Booking Spree .

Jeera rates failed to sustain on to the higher levels as moderate arrivals amidst weak demand pressurized the market sentiments for the commodity. Arrivals are expected to weaken in coming weeks but a rise in exports is needed for providing support to the falling prices.

Reports of adverse weather conditions in other major producers like Turkey and Syria have created apprehensions of lower output there and a possibility of delayed arrivals, originally scheduled from end-June onwards.

Syrian production expected at 40000 tonnes and that in Turkey lower at 12-15000 tonnes Indian production expected at 28-30 lakh bags translating to more than 1.5 lakh tonnes. Higher acreage expected in Gujarat and Rajasthan due to good moisture content in the soil Better Indian quality and availability of stocks could shift the Gulf demand ahead of Ramzan towards India in the coming weeks that could support the falling rates.

Export demand from US and EU could also rise at these lower levels in coming weeks and that could have a moderate bullish impact on the prices Latest reports from Spice Board of India indicates the estimated exports of Spices for the period April-March 2010-11 have risen by 5% from 502,750 MT in 2009-10 to 525,750 MT in 2010-11. Jeera exports fell by 35% from 49,750 MT to 32,500 MT during the same period.

Pepper

Rates fell for Pepper on profit booking at the higher levels as demand got affected in the mandis. A weak trend in other Agri Commodi-ties too affected the market sentiments. Traders have been reportedly waiting for some short term corrections in market rates for new demand as overall trend remains firm. Imposition of 10% additional margin on Buy side for Pepper contracts kept pressurizing market sentiments.

Favorable Monsoon report also affected short term sentiments slight though rates do seem to find support at these lower levels. A rise in demand from these levels could support the rates in the coming days Good export and domestic demand, lower stocks and a fall in production are likely to support the market sentiments in the near term. Traders expect that good demand and a firm trend in Vietnam could support the rates further.

The exports are likely to pick up further and with stockists unwilling to sell at these levels, prices are likely to remain firm. Demand from North India remained moderately good Good demand from Gulf countries supporting the rates. Demand from China and West Asia also reported IPC has predicted 2011 crop to be lower by 2% at 309,952 MT.

Carry forward stocks are expected to decline marginally to 94,582 MT vs 95,442 MT. Global exports have declined by 11% to 237,650 MT. Indian production expected to decline to 48,000 MT Vietnam is having low stocks as per reports. The production there too is expected to fall this year as per some estimates. Brazil and Indonesian crop expected to be lower. Low carryover stock in Brazil and Indonesia is likely to raise exports here in coming months Reports of farmers shifting to other more profitable crops have affected the production aspects for the crop in India Latest reports from Spice Board of India indicates the likely Pepper exports for the period April-March 2010-11 have fallen by 5% to 18,850 MT in 2010-11 from 19,750 MT in 2009-10 same period.

Turmeric

Trend remained moderately weak for Turmeric as low demand and reports of higher production and stocks in the mandis pressurized the prices. There are expectations however of demand rising in coming weeks that could support the falling prices. Short term trend however is likely to remain volatile Sowing has started in the growing areas in Andhra Pradesh and the progress is reportedly satisfactory.

Good Monsoon progress is also reportedly keeping the sowing activities proper. The area sown would however depend on the market rates and if the falling trend continues, traders expect the sowing area may fall as farmers may shift to other lucrative crops like cotton, soybean etc. The present 2010-11 crop is expected higher at 65-70 lakh bags vs 48 lakh bags the earlier year.

Good stocks and increased selling pressure along with weak demand in the mandis have kept trend weak for the commodity over the last few weeks. The sowing period is from June-August and harvesting begins in January. Exports that had remained low are however expected to rise in coming weeks from Europe, US, West Asia and Japan. That could support the falling prices to some extent.

Latest reports from Spice Board of India indicates the expected Turmeric exports for the period April-March 2010-11 have fallen by 3% to 49,250 MT in 2010-11 from 50,750 MT in 2009-10 same period.

Source : commodityonline.com