Jeera May Continue Uptrend On Firm Exports .

Trend remained bullish for Jeera last week as export queries were reported in the mandis amidst rise in domestic demand also and falling arrivals in the markets. Traders expect overall trend to remain firm on rising exports for the commodity in coming weeks.

Rains in Gujarat had slight bearish impact on the market sentiments as the demand got adversely affected but that is considered to be temporary phenomenon only. Trend likely to remain up with intermittent profit booking.

Reports of adverse weather conditions in other major producers like Turkey and Syria have created apprehensions of lower output there and a possibility of delayed arrivals, originally scheduled from end-June onwards. Syrian production expected at 40000 tonnes and that in Turkey lower at 12-15000 tonnes.

Indian production expected at 28-30 lakh bags translating to more than 1.5 lakh tonnes.

Better Indian quality and availability of stocks could shift the Gulf demand ahead of Ramzan towards India in the coming weeks.

Export demand from US and EU could also rise at these lower levels in coming weeks and that could have a moderate bullish impact on the prices.

Latest reports from Spice Board of India indicates the estimated exports of Spices for the period April-March 2010-11 have risen by 5% from 502,750 MT in 2009-10 to 525,750 MT in 2010-11. Jeera exports fell by 35% from 49,750 MT to 32,500 MT during the same period.

Pepper

Pepper rates shot up at the lower levels on rising demand in the mandis amidst increasing export queries. Demand from North India is reportedly rising—and so are the export queries as exporters wait for dips for new queries. Firmness in International markets along with reports of lower production there too kept the Indian rates firm.

Traders anticipate more rise in demand at these low levels that could support the price in the coming days. Short term high volatility is expected to continue but further rise in export and festive sea-son domestic demand could perk up prices further

Good export and domestic demand, lower stocks and a fall in production are likely to support the market sentiments in the near term. Traders expect that good demand and a firm trend in Vietnam could support the rates further.

The exports are likely to pick up further and with stockists unwilling to sell at these levels, prices are likely to remain firm. Demand from North India remained moderately good.

Good demand from Gulf countries supporting the rates. Demand from China and West Asia also reported.

IPC has predicted 2011 crop to be lower by 2% at 309,952 MT. Carryforward stocks are expected to decline marginally to 94,582 MT vs 95,442 MT. Global exports have declined by 11% to 237,650 MT. Indian production expected to decline to 48,000 MT.

Vietnam is having low stocks as per reports. The production there too is expected to fall this year as per some estimates. Brazil and Indonesian crop expected to be lower. Low carryover stock in Brazil and Indonesia is likely to raise exports here in coming months.

Reports of farmers shifting to other more profitable crops have affected the production aspects for the crop in India.

Latest reports from Spice Board of India indicates the likely Pepper exports for the period April-March 2010-11 have fallen by 5% to 18,850 MT in 2010-11 from 19,750 MT in 2009-10 same period.

Turmeric

Rates shot up for Turmeric as demand picked up gradually in the mandis. Traders feel present rates are very low as the market has already shown huge corrections over last few weeks. There are however expectations of further pick up in domestic and export demand in coming weeks.

Reports of rains in growing areas in Andhra Pradesh kept sentiments down. Low demand and reports of higher production and stocks in mandis are likely to pressurize the prices to some extent. There are expectations however of demand rising in coming weeks that could support the falling prices

Sowing has started in the growing areas in Andhra Pradesh and the progress is reportedly satisfactory. Good Monsoon progress is also reportedly keeping the sowing activities proper.

The area sown would however depend on the market rates and if the falling trend continues, traders expect the sowing area may fall as farmers may shift to other lucrative crops like cotton, soybean etc.

The present 2010-11 crop is expected higher at 65-70 lakh bags vs 48 lakh bags the earlier year.

Good stocks and increased selling pressure along with weak demand in the mandis have kept trend weak for the commodity over the last few weeks. The sowing period is from June-August and harvesting begins in January.

Exports that had remained low are however expected to rise in coming weeks from Europe, US, West Asia and Japan. That could support the falling prices to some extent.

Source : commodityonline.com