Pepper Still Bullish, Soybean Gains On Oilmeal Export Demand .

Pepper continued its bullilsh trend on supply concerns while chana weakened on estimates of record pulses production in India in 2010-11. Soybean complex was well supported by oilmeal export demand.

Pepper

Pepper futures continued its bullish trend this week on supply concerns in the market and on strong buying from the traders. Supplies have also been poor in the spot market because of almost stagnant production in the last two-three years.
Reports of recovery in Vietnam prices and lack of selling pressure in the spot market here, pushed up the market. However, the current scenario is favourable for the unscrupulous importers who could import cheap pepper from Vietnam and sell on the domestic market at the prevailing high prices, market observers alleged.

Unseasonal rain in October-December affected the yield of pepper vines and is likely to slash output this year, industry officials said.

The most active May futures contract at National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) hit a fresh contract high of Rs 27183 per quintal this week and closed at the same price, higher by 0.71 per cent. June contract opened this week at Rs.27400 per 100 Kg and attained a high of Rs. 27658 per 100 Kg. The contract closed at Rs.27605 per quintal, up by 0.74 per cent.
According to Spices Board of India exports of pepper from India during April 2010- February 2011 stood at 16,600 tonnes as compared to 18,425 tonnes in 2009-10, decline of 10%.

According to International Pepper Community (IPC) report, export of black pepper from Vietnam during January to March 2011around 25,000 MT has been exported, a decline of 10% as compared to previous year. Pepper exports from Indonesia during January to March 2011stood around 6,400 MT as compared to 5,700 MT in the same period previous year.

Chana

Chana futures ended steady this weekend on bargain buying by the traders at lower levels. Higher arrivals of the commodity in key producing areas and lower-than-expected wedding season demand still pressurizing the market.

At NCDEX May delivery contract opened at Rs 2380 per 10 MT and closed at Rs 2339, down by 1.72% whereas Chana June contract opened at Rs.2446 and ended at Rs.2409, down by 1.51 % (High 2447).

Arrivals of chana are expected to be in full momentum during this month which would create good buying level at the physical markets.

Production of Chana as well as Pulses in the current crop year is estimated higher at 7.38 million tonnes and 17.29 million tonnes respectively. Planning Commission has estimated that the demand for pulses in the country during the period 2011-12 is 19.11 million tonne.

Fresh arrivals of Chana from Rajasthan stood around 80,000 bags as compared to 40,000 bags the previous week.
The food ministry has been subsiding pulses and edible oil distribution under the public distribution system (PDS) by states to the extent of Rs 10 a kg and Rs 15 a litre, respectively. The difference between the market price and the price of PDS is compensated to states through these subsidy schemes.

Soybean

Soybean rose this week on the back of strong export demand for the Indian oil meals and on tracking firm overseas markets. At the end of the week futures prices traded slightly own tracking weak Malaysian palm oil and on higher arrivals of rapeseed in the spot market.

In futures market, NCDEX May soybean prices rose from Rs.2413 to Rs 2424, up by 0.45 per cent (High 2448) while June Soybean prices settled higher by 0.82 % from Rs 2438 to Rs.2458. May soyoil prices gained from Rs 613.30 to Rs 620.90 per 10 MT (High 626.50).

In global markets on Friday, Soybean futures for July delivery advanced 20.5 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $13.8975 a bushel in Chicago. The most-active futures gained 3.5 percent this week.

Weekly export inspections report released on April 18, 2011, which is reached 14.2 million bushels, it was lower than expected. Cumulative exports have reached 84.6% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 80.9% as the 5-year average for this time of the year.

Government in its third advance estimate has estimated the record production of India’s oilseeds at 30.25 million tonnes in 2010- 11 vs 24.93 million tonnes in 2009-10. Soybean output is estimated at 12.59 million tonnes against 10.05 million tonnes in 2009-10 and Groundnut at 7.09 million tonnes against 5.5 million tonnes in 2009- 10.

Cotton

India cotton prices continued its sluggish trend this week on poor demand from the millers. At Rajkot, the Sankar-6 variety fell from Rs 63,000 a candy of 356 kg to Rs 53,000-54,000 on the spot market this month.

In futures market, NCDEX April Kapas futures fell from Rs.1025 to Rs 1971.40, down by 5.22% (High Rs.1029).

The latest estimate of the Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) put India's output from the harvest at 31.2 million bales in 2010/11, lower than the previous estimate of 32.9 million bales, but still 5.8 percent higher than the year-ago period which was hit by drought.
The cotton shortage this season will be 24 percent smaller than forecast last month because of slowing demand, led by China according to Cotlook Ltd. Cotton imports by China fell 14.6 percent in March from a year ago, as lower yarn prices cut into profits for the textile industry, reducing demand.

Cotton futures for July delivery advanced 0.45 cent, or 0.3 percent, to $1.6751 a pound on ICE.

Sugar

Sugar prices rose this week on an improvement in the demand due to ongoing wedding season and as a rise in temperature prompt cool drink makers to raise purchases. Millers preferred to hold prices hoping for better prices ahead also supported the commodity.

Demand for the sweetener from ice-cream and cold-drink makers typically goes up during the summer months. The country, which consumes about 22-23 million tonnes of sugar annually, is likely to produce 25 million tonnes in 2010/11, up 33 percent from the previous year.

In global markets, sugar rose on signs that Brazil will reduce cane output and increase ethanol production.

On Thursday, raw sugar for July delivery rose 0.27 cent, or 1.1 percent, to settle at 23.8 cents on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. The contract has dropped 3.6 percent this week. In London, refined-sugar futures for August delivery rose 40 cents, or 0.1 percent to $639.10 a metric ton on NYSE Liffe.

India, which has allowed exports of 500,000 tonnes of sugar following a bumper crop, has asked mills to register starting Tuesday, a source in the food ministry said.

As per latest release from Ministry of Agriculture, Indian mills can import sugar at zero import duty until June 30, after scrapping a 60% tax of imported sugar. The new order scrapping the tax is effective from April 15.

The government on Tuesday notified export of 5 lakh tonne of sugar— nearly a month after the decision was approved by a panel of ministers— but traders are not happy because global prices have fallen sharply in the past few weeks.

The global prices of white sugar have declined by 11% to $626.9 per tonne since March 22 (when the empowered group of ministers on food decided to allow exports), leaving very little incentive for mills in North India to export.

Brazil will boost sugar production to 34.6 million metric tons this year from 33.5 million tons a year earlier, according to Unica, an industry group. Thailand’s output for the season that began Oct. 1 may reach an all-time high.

Rubber

Rubber futures were almost steady this week as the traders were reluctant to increase their commitments before the long weekend holidays falling along with Easter. Prices recovered partially on fresh buying and short-covering at lower levels.
At NMCE, May contract closed up by 0.48 % to Rs 24368 (High 24499) while June contract increased by 0.87% to 24817 per quintal (High 24919).

In global markets, rubber climbed on concerns that demand from China and India may outpace supply during the low- production season in Southeast Asia.

The September-delivery contract advanced as much as 3.1 percent to 425 yen per kilogram ($5,185 a metric ton) and settled at 419 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Futures declined 3.7 percent this week, the second straight fall. Rubber for September delivery in Shanghai advanced as much as 2 percent to 35,195 yuan ($5,408) a ton before closing at 34,780 yuan.
Consumption in China is expected to grow by 6 percent this year to 3.5 million tons, the Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said.

Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces in March that may have damaged about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation.

Source : commodityonline.com