Prules Firm On Low Arrivals.

Spot pepper prices and Futures traded firm owing to improved offtakes by the local stockists and settled 1.33% higher on Thursday. Hoarding or pepper by Vietnam farmers anticipating further rise in the coming days is also supporting pepper prices.

In Indonesia, international pepper prices rose by around 3% last week due to lower availability. India pepper prices are quoting around $7.100-$7200 tonne. (Source: spot market traders)

Exports from the major countries

According to Spices Board of India exports of pepper from India during April 2010- February 2011 stood at 16,600 tonnes as compared to 18,425 tonnes in 2009-10, decline or 10%.

According to International Pepper community (IPC) export of black pepper from Brazil during January to March 2011 stood at 7901 Mt (6911) increase of 14% as compared to previous year. Exports of Black pepper from Vietnam during January to March 2011 stood at 25,000 MT, decline or 10% as compared to previous year.

Pepper exports from Indonesia during January to March 2011 stood round 6,400 MT as compared to 5,700 MT in the same period previous year.

According to General Statistics Office of Vietnam, the country has exported around 42000 tonnes or Pepper during January to April 2011.

Production and Arrivals

Arrivals or pepper in the domestic mandi reduced to 23 tonnes yesterday as compared to 57 Mt on Wednesday.

Production of pepper in India in 2010-11 is projected to be 48 thousand tonnes (according to the Spices Board) as compared to 50 thousand tonnes last year. However, there are expectations that this estimate would be lowered further on account of the disease attacks and erratic rainfall in the major growing areas particularly Kerala and Karnataka.

According to International Pepper community ((PC) global output of Pepper for 2011 is expected to decline by 6500 tonnes to 3.10 lakh tonnes. Vietnam production of the spice is expected to be same as that of previous year to 1.1o Lakh tonnes. Pepper production in Brazil stood around 27,000 tonnes in 2010-11 as compared to 35,000 tonnes the previous year.

Outlook

As prices have risen sharply in the last few weeks, technical correction cannot be ruled out. However, uptrend still remains intact in the short term on account of lower supplies both in the domestic as well as in the international coupled with hoarding or Pepper by the Vietnam farmers. Domestic prices will also take cues from pepper prices of Vietnam in the international market.

In the medium to long term (June onwards), price trend will depend on pepper production in Indonesia and Brazil and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers.

Source : commodityonline.com