Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- India, Asia’s biggest soybean meal exporter, may miss a target to boost shipments by 25 percent as a surge in domestic seed prices prompts buyers to shift to South American supplies, a processors’ group said.
Shipments in the year to September may be 3 million to 3.5 million metric tons, less than the 4 million tons target, Rajesh Agrawal, coordinator for the Soybean Processors’ Association of India, said in a phone interview from Indore today. Exports were 3.21 million tons in the 2008-09 season.
Soybean prices in India have jumped 44 percent in the past year after drought reduced production in Argentina and Brazil, the top exporters of animal feed, boosting demand for supplies from the South Asian nation. Rising India meal prices may prompt Japan and South Korea, the biggest buyers, to shift to U.S. and Latin American suppliers.
“The situation is not very pleasant as far as exports are concerned,” Agrawal said.
Soybean meal, priced at $440 and $450 a ton at ports in western India, is at least $20 a ton more expensive than that from Brazil, Argentina and the U.S., Agrawal said.
January-delivery soybean meal gained as much as 1.2 percent to $318.40 a short ton in after-hours trading in Chicago today. The commodity has gained 27 percent in the past year.
U.S. sales of soybean meal in the marketing year that began Oct. 1 reached 4.696 million tons as of last week, up 72 percent from a year earlier, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show.
The U.S. is the top producer and exporter of the oilseed.
Indian traders have contracted to supply about 900,000 tons this season and may export 750,000 tons by January, Agrawal said. Exports in November may decline 40 percent to below 400,000 tons, compared with 663,776 tons last year, he said.
‘Sluggish Exports’
“Unless local prices drop significantly or international prices move up sharply, exports will remain sluggish,” Agrawal said. “Processors have slowed down crushing.”
Farmers are holding back soybeans in anticipation of higher prices and daily market arrivals at around 250,000 bags of 90 kilograms each are 15 percent less than a year earlier, he said.
The processors association maintained its output forecast of 9.72 million ton for this year, compared with 8.5 million tons predicted by the Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade, the nation’s biggest group, Agrawal said.
Soybean meal, India’s largest meal export, is added to poultry feed as a form of protein to aid birds’ growth. The country usually exports more than 70 percent of its output.
Source : bloomberg.com