The Indian rupee broke a historic barrier by crossing 90 against the US dollar on December 3, 2025. In early trade yesterday (December 9, 2025), the rupee further depreciated by 10 paise to 90.15 against the US dollar. From an exchange rate of under Rs 84 in May this year, the rupee has plummeted by over 7% in just six months.
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This steep fall means that NRIs can get more value in Indian rupees when converting their dollars. Against this backdrop, many NRIs may be wondering whether this is an opportune time to transfer USD to INR or deploy their surplus funds in India.
However, it is a bit of a gamble if you decide to convert all your USD now. If the rupee depreciates further, you may miss the opportunity to convert your USD at higher rates. On the flip side, if the rupee strengthens, you may be lucky to have converted your foreign exchange at the right time. You can’t completely dismiss this possibility. According to BofA, on December 8, they predict the Indian rupee will hit 86/USD by the end of 2026, in line with USD weakness next year.
Even in the case of further depreciation of the rupee, it is not certain that NRIs will end up losing, as they can convert their USD now and invest that amount in India. For instance, if the INR depreciates further to 95 by the end of next year, an NRI could earn at least 6-7% interest during that time by investing in fixed deposits.
Let’s look at the 3 scenarios (USD/INR at 90, 95, or 86) to see how an NRI converting USD to INR today vs later would fare.
How NRIs benefit at different USD/INR rates with an example
If an NRI converts $100 to INR, the table below shows how much they would receive in each case.
Why has the Indian rupee fallen against the US dollar?
The rupee’s value is declining due to many external factors such as ongoing withdrawals of foreign portfolio investments, a widening trade deficit, uncertainty around the US–India trade tariffs, and continued strong dollar demand, all of which are putting pressure on the Indian currency.
According to The Times of India (December 4, 2025), foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn more than $17 billion this year.
An Emkay Global Financial Services report on trade deficit (October 15, 2025) points out that the merchandise trade deficit rose to a one-year high of USD32.1 billion in Sep (Aug USD26.5 billion), primarily due to a surge in gold imports to USD10 billion.
“Corporates repaying USD loans and rising outward remittances for education and overseas investments have increased dollar demand, drawing more USD from India's FX reserves,” says Nishant Kohli, Founder and CEO, NRI Nivesh.
“Additionally, at this time, there is also a possibility of active RBI currency management to depreciate the rupee to manage tariff-related complications on Indian exports, making Indian exports more competitive,” says Karan Mehrishi, Independent Economist.
What do the macroeconomic factors suggest about the direction of exchange rate?
As the rupee crosses the 90 mark on Wednesday (3rd December, 2025) against the US dollar, this can be the best time for NRIs to convert USD to INR, as each dollar yields significantly more rupees, creating a strong entry advantage.
Secondly, Inflation, which is one of the most prominent factor influencing the exchange rate, has eased considerably, indicating more stable macroeconomic conditions.
“Inflation has dropped significantly, signalling stable macro conditions and since a year Indian markets have been flat and range-bound in providing an opportunity to accumulate stocks and mutual fund units at relatively discounted prices,” says Kohli.
“And after the RBI rate cut, we will see improving liquidity with expectations of a stronger market outlook by the next quarter,” he adds. The better the macro economic conditions in India, the lesser the volatility expected on the exchange rate front.
Real GDP grew by 8.2% in Q2 2025–26, the highest in 6 quarters, driven by strong domestic demand despite global trade and policy uncertainties and aided by favourable USD-INR levels. This reflects India’s bright long-term growth outlook.
“India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies, and by converting at these favourable levels, NRIs can potentially benefit from both the higher INR allocation today and the opportunity to participate in India’s long-term growth story,” says Pankaj Shrestha, Head of Investment Advisory Division at PL Capital.
Amid the rupee’s favourable shift, the benefits for NRI remitters have become increasingly evident.
“NRIs are enjoying one of the most favourable remittance rates in years compared to last year’s ₹82–83 levels. Sending $10,000 today fetches ₹900,000, a gain of ₹70,000 or about $850 more, purely from currency movement,” says Mudit Vijayvergiya, Founder, SBNRI.
“Today, India’s growth is higher, inflation is under control, and the gap between India and the US looks favourable, all of which support a stronger rupee over the next 5–7 years,” says Shobhit Mathur, co-founder of Ionic Wealth.
How much money should NRIs transfer to India now vs later?
Experts recommend a balanced approach instead of dumping all your money into India at once. They suggest that NRIs can benefit from the favourable currency rate while also managing risk through staggered investing.
“If an NRI plans to invest $10, allocating around 60% now is sensible, as the rupee is at an all-time low this provides strong conversion advantages. The remaining portion can then be deployed gradually during other INR/USD dips. This systematic accumulation strategy will help them reduce risk while allowing investors to benefit from favourable currency conditions,” says Kohli.
“A measured approach is to stagger remittances; split them across the next few months. This gives NRIs a balanced entry price and reduces timing risk,” says Mathur
For cautious investors, spreading investments over the next 6 months can mitigate immediate uncertainties.
“For those who prefer a more conservative approach, staggering investments over the next six months can help manage near-term uncertainties, including the expected resolution of the US–India trade tariff situation,” says Shrestha.
Source Name : Economic Times