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Are we headed for a sell-on-news market on June 4? Siddhartha Khemka explains.


Date: 30-05-2024
Subject: Are we headed for a sell-on-news market on June 4? Siddhartha Khemka explains
Siddhartha Khemka, Head-Retail Research, MOFSL, says if the BJP manages on its own around 340-350 seats, that will definitely enthuse the market to some extent and overall, we are expecting that barring a few days of volatility, market focus will return to fundamentals. On both the macro as well as on the micro front, India stands pretty confident with 6.5 plus percent growth expected for the next two years and 16- 18% corporate earnings growth for next two  ..

Are we headed for a sell-on-news market on June 4 and do you think a market which is already easing off, has a chance to go up or will it be down?
Siddhartha Khemka: There are various possible scenarios and outcomes and based on that, the market could react. There is a lot of talks and a lot of reports being floated around with respect to how market would react to the number that the BJP kind of garners, so anything between that 310-320 would be a scenario wh ..

But if BJP manages on its own around 340-350 seats, that will definitely enthuse the market to some extent and overall, what we are expecting that barring a few days of volatility, market focus will return to fundamentals and if you look at both on the macro as well as on the micro front, India stands pretty confidently with the 6.5 plus percent growth expected for the next two years and 16% to 18% corporate earnings growth again for the next two years.


So, with both macros as well as micros in place, even Nifty valuations are not that uncomfortable at 20 times one year forward, we believe there could be a significant room for upside given that A) the political continuity will happen, B) good monsoon has been forecasted for this year and then see there will be an interest rate cut cycle which will start towards the later part of this year and all these would continue to support the corporate earnings. So, we remain constructive, although near t ..

Do you have a view on Motherson?
Siddhartha Khemka: Overall on Samvardhana Motherson, we have a positive view in the auto ancillary space. The company has been doing well. Even the stock price is at an all-time high. So, we continue to remain positive. We have a target price of Rs 150. But if you look at the core business that has been doing well and the OEMs business, especially if you see most of the auto companies, they are seeing good recovery, be it the  ..

We are also seeing the content per vehicle, the electrification is also helping increase that and that is leading to more and more demand for products from Samvardhana. So, overall, we remain positive on Samvardhana. The stock price has definitely moved up and we see the stock to continue to do well.

Defence has become a bit of a black box because you are tempted to book profits on one hand, but at the same time you are worried that these stocks just might continue to move higher and you will miss out on the rally?
Siddhartha Khemka: That is a conundrum one faces when a sector which has not done well for a very long time starts performing and delivering results quarter after quarter. The market is definitely looking at the longer-term picture, not the nex ..

It would be a very difficult call to say whether the valuations are comfortable or not, but we have seen that the market continues to value high growth companies and continues to give them premium valuation. So, some of these large companies continue to trade at higher valuation. Look at BEL, which we believe is doing well and would continue to do well within the defence space. So, we have a positive view there and we continue to like Bharat Electronics within the overall pack, given its focus o ..

What is your opinion on the entire metal cycle? Hindalco seems to be a special situation stock right now because of the Novelis IPO pricing now out, but where do you think we are in the entire metal cycle?
Siddhartha Khemka: So, rightly said. Hindalco because of the Novelis IPO is definitely in a special position but if you look at the core business itself the results were pretty good, revenue for Q4 was up 6%, PAT grew about 36%. Going ahead the company is l ..

Overall, we definitely like Hindalco and we have a target price of Rs 790. For the metals pack, we feel that while the Q4 numbers may not be that great, going forward things are incrementally looking better and with China recovering, demand is pretty strong and the base metal prices are also seeing improvement.

We believe that this is just again the start of recovery mode for the metals companies, especially the base metals, so both ferrous as well as the non-ferrous which is mainly the  ..

 Source Name : Economic Times

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