Singapore: Emerging markets may need more than a surprise recovery in Chinese manufacturing to exorcise the pain of November.
Though data on Saturday unexpectedly showed China’s official manufacturing PMI surged past the 50 level for the first time since April, the on-off state of the trade talks, currency weakness in Latin America against a backdrop of popular unrest are likely to curb investor enthusiasm.
MSCI Inc’s gauges of emerging market stocks and currencies dropped for the third successive week in the five days through Friday, capping their first November declines since 2016. A Bloomberg Barclays index of local-currency bonds fell for a fourth straight week.
A combination of falling relative returns, the slowing pace of interest-rate cuts and a weakening growth outlook are keeping emerging markets in check headed into December. And there’s little sign of a turnaround any time soon, according to HSBC Plc.
“The conditions are not seen coming together for emerging-market currencies to stage a broad-based recovery,” Hong Kong-based Paul Mackel and Ju Wang said in a note Friday. “It will be another frustrating year for EM foreign exchange.”
Markets are waiting for China’s response after President Donald Trump signed a bill backing Hong Kong’s protesters, a move that could complicate the signing of the phase one trade deal. China’s foreign ministry reiterated a threat of retaliation on Thursday.
The Hong Kong bill requires annual reviews of the city’s special trading status under US law and sanctions officials deemed responsible for human rights abuses and undermining the city’s autonomy. A second Hong Kong measure also bans the export of crowd-control items such as tear gas and rubber bullets to the city’s police.
“The market is back on Beijing watch to see if this bill could be a trade deal breaker,” Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at Axi-Trader in Bangkok, wrote in a note. “The big question is, does China decide to compartmentalize the Hong Kong issues away from the phase one deal? So that’s where the risk lies now.” China’s government wants tariffs to be rolled back as part of the phase one trade deal with the US, Global Times said in a tweet on Sunday, citing unidentified people in Beijing ..
Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com