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India's 2014/15 rapeseed oil output to fall, edible oil imports seen up |
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NEW DELHI: India's rapeseed oil output could fall by a tenth in 2014/15 as farmers sowed the main winter oilseed crop on a smaller total area than the previous season because of poor soil moisture in the main growing areas, traders said.
That could lead to higher imports of edible oils to India, the world's leading buyer, in the current marketing year that began in November and might support benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures, which have dropped by a fifth this year.
Traders expect rapeseed output to drop to 7.0 million tonnes in the 2014/15 crop year (July/June) from 7.4 million last year. The planted area is forecast to drop by 6 percent to 6.7 million hectares (16.6 million acres) from 7.1 million hectares.
Rapeseed oil supplies could fall by 11 percent to 2.4 million tonnes in 2014/15 from the previous year, when ample monsoon rain helped the oilseed crop.
"The size of rapeseed output will depend on how the temperature prevails in the next six to seven weeks over the main growing belt of northwest India," said Govindbhai G. Patel, managing partner of G G Patel & Nikhil Research Co.
Rapeseed needs damp condition for sowing and this year's poor monsoon in the northwest, including the main growing state of Rajasthan, led to the fall in planted area.
"If the current high temperature prevails for the next couple of weeks, then the oil content in rapeseed would come down," said Bhagwat Garg, a New Delhi-based trade analyst.
Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of the Mumbai-based Sunvin Group, agreed. "Local rapeseed oil supplies could be 300,000 tonnes less in comparison to last year if the current warmer conditions continue."
India's edible oil imports rose for the third year in a row to 11.6 million tonnes in the year to October due to a surge in soy and sunflower oils. But palm oil, the main contributor to the edible oil import basket, fell for the first time in four years.
India's annual edible oil demand stands at 18-19 million tonnes and is growing by 3 to 4 percent a year. Imports usually account for around 60 percent of consumption.
In India, the world's third-biggest producer after China and Canada, sowing of rapeseed usually starts from October, while the oilseed is harvested from February.
Planting is expected to continue until mid-December this year because of the delay caused by a poor monsoon season that left soil dry.
So far, farmers have planted rapeseed on 5.8 million hectares, down by 4.7 percent from the same period last year.
Source : economictimes.indiatimes.com
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