New Delhi, May 10 Even as the Centre seems to be gradually releasing the brakes on rice and wheat shipments, the two cereals offer completely contrasting prospects for exports.
While wheat exports are clearly unviable sans any Government subsidy, there is definitely money to be made in the case of rice.
Last week, a Committee of Secretaries is understood to have approved export of up to 20 lakh tonnes (lt) of wheat on private account from May 15. The proposal requires firms to procure the wheat from the open market, with the Centre not making available any grain from the Food Corporation of India’s stocks.
‘Not feasible’
“It is not feasible. At today’s minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 10,800 a tonne plus local taxes, mandi fees, bagging charges, transport and port handling expenses, the free-on-board (f.o.b.) price at Kandla or Mundra will be at least Rs 14,000 or $280 a tonne. Even if wheat is bought below MSP, it cannot be exported for less than $250,” according to trade sources.
As against this, Black Sea origin (Russia and Ukraine) wheat is being offered at $185 a tonne f.o.b. for June-July delivery. Other major suppliers from the Northern Hemisphere – where harvesting takes place from March to July – are quoting just around $10 more. These include France, Germany, Canada and the US (short red winter varieties).
Indian wheat cannot compete even with countries in the Southern Hemisphere (Australia and Argentina) that have already marketed bulk of their crop harvested last October to December. Australian prime wheat is now selling for $215-220 a tonne, while soft white is still cheaper at $200 a tonne.
It’s quite the other way round for rice. Currently, white rice, with 25 per cent brokens from Thailand, is trading at $425 a tonne f.o.b., while ruling at $400 for Vietnamese grain.
Parboiled rice
On the other hand, better-quality parboiled rice with just 16 per cent brokens can be sourced from Chhattisgarh for as low as Rs 11,500 a tonne. This is below even the Rs 14,500 rate payable to mills for the ‘levy’ rice delivered by them for the public distribution system.
“FCI is not lifting any levy rice as its godowns are full. So, we are being forced to dispose of this rice in the open market for Rs 11,500. At this price, we are not able to pay farmers even Rs 800 a quintal for common paddy, leave alone the Rs 900 MSP (on which the levy price is computed),” a miller from Raipur told Business Line.
While Rs 11,500 may be an extreme rate, the fact is “you can easily get parboiled IR-64 rice with 5-10 per cent brokens for below Rs 13,000 a tonne in much of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh”, the trade sources said.
If, to this, one adds Rs 3,500-4,000 for bagging, transport, barge expenses, loading to the vessels and others custom house agent charges, Indian rice will not cost more than Rs 17,000 or $340 a tonne at the port.
“If you buy at Rs 11,500, the export cost at Kakinada will not even touch $300,” the sources added.
The Commerce Ministry, last Wednesday, gave permission for export of 10 lt of rice to 21 African countries. While the exports are ostensibly on government-to-government account and to be routed through parastatals (STC, MMTC and PEC), the actual sourcing and shipping areexpected to be sub-contracted to private firms. Among those said to be in the running are the Delhi-based Shri Lal Mahal Ltd, Emmsons International and Amira Foods.
Arbitrage opportunities
“Unlike wheat, rice exports from India present huge arbitrage opportunities arising from the roughly $100-plus cost advantage over Thai or Vietnamese grain,” the sources noted.
Source : Business Line