Wait...

Online Export Import Data Search

Recent Searches: No Recent Searches
Complete Training Video : Click Here

Oxford Economics revises downwards India growth forecast; pegs at average 4.5 pc for 2020-25.


Date: 20-11-2020
Subject: Oxford Economics revises downwards India growth forecast; pegs at average 4.5 pc for 2020-25
"We forecast India's growth equilibrium to worsen substantially over the medium term, with potential growth averaging just 4.5 per cent over 2020-2025 in our latest baseline, as opposed to our pre-virus forecast of 6.5 per cent," Oxford Economics said.

Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Thursday revised downwards its India growth forecast over the medium term to an average 4.5 per cent over 2020-25, from its pre-pandemic projection of 6.5 per cent. In a research note, it said India’s post-COVID-19 scars could be among the worst in the world.

“We forecast India’s growth equilibrium to worsen substantially over the medium term, with potential growth averaging just 4.5 per cent over 2020-2025 in our latest baseline, as opposed to our pre-virus forecast of 6.5 per cent,” Oxford Economics said.

It said an adequate and well-designed fiscal stimulus would halve this impact by limiting deterioration in pre-COVID-19 headwinds. “But, given the low likelihood of such a comprehensive response, we project India’s GDP per capita to be 12 per cent below our pre-virus baseline even in 2025, implying the largest amount of scarring among major economies globally,” Oxford Economics said.

It added that the Indian government has announced various schemes and reforms this year, with an eye on the medium-to-long-term growth.

“However, its policy implementation track record is mixed and is likely to have been weakened further by recent social and institutional developments that detract from its capacity to focus on economic policymaking,” the global forecasting firm said.

Beyond 2020, Oxford Economics said India remains one of the most rapidly growing economies in our baseline. “But, that is not enough to preclude a large medium-term output loss in the wake of COVID-19,” it said. Oxford Economics said that even after the pandemic is contained, India’s economy will have to deal with its aftermath.

“It’s likely that headwinds already hampering growth prior to 2020 such as stressed corporate balance sheets, elevated non-performing assets (NPAs) of banks, the fallout in non-bank financial companies (NBFCs), and labour market weakness  will worsen,” it noted.

The resulting long-term scars, it said, would probably among the worst globally and would push India’s trend growth substantially lower from pre-COVID-19 levels.

Oxford Economics said that despite having one of the most stringent lockdowns globally, India’s direct fiscal response to COVID-19 so far amounts to just 2.5 per cent of GDP, with the lion’s share of the USD 230-billion fiscal package earmarked for liquidity and financing support schemes.

“While we forecast that the central government’s fiscal deficit will widen to 7 per cent of GDP (gross domestic product) in 2020-21 from 4.7 per cent in 2019-20, it’s unlikely to deliver a meaningful boost to growth because it’s not the result of a surge in spending,” it argued.

Oxford Economics said it expects private investment to continue to be held back by both macroeconomic and financial factors. On the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, the global forecasting firm said that while not a reform in itself, the scheme is an important fiscal incentive that could impart a significant boost to manufacturing and investment in principle.

Oxford Economics said the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, sparked protests last year. The unexpected departure of a second RBI governor in 2018 alongside other senior technocrats from different government offices raised questions about the independence of key institutions, such as the central bank and the nodal statistical agency, it added.

“Against this backdrop, we remain cautious on the timeline and magnitude of growth impact that these schemes and reforms could have,” it said.

Meanwhile, Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday upped India’s growth forecast to (-) 10.6 per cent for the current fiscal, from its earlier estimate of (-) 11.5 per cent. It said the latest stimulus prioritises manufacturing and job creation, and shifts focus to longer-term growth.

Source:-financialexpress.com

Get Sample Now

Which service(s) are you interested in?
 Export Data
 Import Data
 Both
 Buyers
 Suppliers
 Both
OR
 Exim Help
+


What is New?

Date: 26-11-2020
Notification No. 43/2020-Customs
Seeks to further amend notification No. 50/2017-Customs dated 30th June, 2017 so as to prescribe BCD rate of 27.5% on Crude Palm Oil

Date: 26-11-2020
Notification No. 39/2020-Customs (ADD)
Seeks to amend notification No. 51/2015-Customs (ADD), dated 21st October, 2015 to extend the levy of ADD on imports of "Fully Drawn or Fully Oriented Yarn/Spin Drawn Yarn/Flat Yarn of Polyester " originating in or exported from China PR & Thailand , for a further period upto and inclusive of 31st December, 2020

Date: 26-11-2020
Public Notice No. 30/2015-20
Revision of SION A1827 of Export Products - Ossein

Date: 23-11-2020
A.P. (DIR Series) Circular No. 07
Establishment of Branch Office (BO) / Liaison Office (LO) / Project Office (PO) or any other place of business in India by foreign law firms

Date: 20-11-2020
Circular No.51/2020-Customs
Clarifications regarding availment of exemption on temporary import of durable Containers - reg.

Date: 19-11-2020
Notification No. 60/2020-Customs (N.T./CAA/DRI)
Appointment of CAA by Pr. DGRI

Date: 19-11-2020
Notification No. 61/2020-Customs (N.T./CAA/DRI)
Appointment of CAA by Pr. DGRI

Date: 19-11-2020
Notification No. 59/2020-Customs (N.T./CAA/DRI)
Appointment of CAA by Pr. DGRI

Date: 19-11-2020
Notification No. 38/2020 -Customs (ADD)
Seeks to further amend notification No. 56/2015-Customs (ADD) dated 4th Dec, 2015 to extend the levy of Anti-Dumping duty on Phthalic Anhydride originating in or exported from Japan and Russia, up to and inclusive of 31st Jan, 2021.

Date: 19-11-2020
Notification No. 108/2020 - Customs (N.T.)
Exchange rate Notification No.108/2020-Cus (NT) dated 19.11.2020



Exim Guru Copyright © 1999-2020 Exim Guru. All Rights Reserved.
The information presented on the site is believed to be accurate. However, InfodriveIndia takes no legal responsibilities for the validity of the information.
Please read our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy before you use this Export Import Data Directory.

EximGuru.com

C/o InfodriveIndia Pvt Ltd
F-19, Pocket F, Okhla Phase-I
Okhla Industrial Area
New Delhi - 110020, India
Phone : 011 - 40703001