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Rupee ends higher at 74.64 on overseas inflows, recovery hope; RBI may step in at 74.


Date: 04-07-2020
Subject: Rupee ends higher at 74.64 on overseas inflows, recovery hope; RBI may step in at 74
The Indian rupee appreciated further on July 3, getting stronger by another 37 paise given the risk-on environment, rising hope for global growth and significant inflows in the market.

The currency closed at 74.64 to the dollar, the highest closing level since March 18 this year. It had settled previous session at 75.01.

"Rupee ended at over three month high as risk appetite boosted following an upbeat US employment data, while likely overseas inflows into local stocks weigh down spot pair. Globally stocks were supported by uplifted sentiments following the strong US jobs data. FII inflows into local equities led gains in local currency," Jateen Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst (Commodity & Currency) at LKP Securities told Moneycontrol.

Overall in two days, the rupee gained 95 paise, while it strengthened by 222 paise from its record closing high seen in April.

Experts expect the rupee to extend gains towards 74.00 levels given the dollar weakness, hope of global growth and consistent inflows, but the Reserve Bank of India may intervene if appreciates sharply.

"The risk-on environment and significant flows in the market, and as strong data sets from the US have weighed on the dollar, should lead to the rupee testing levels of 74.30 and 74 eventually," Sugandha Sachdeva VP-Metals, Energy & Currency Research at Religare Broking said.

Having said that, she believes the RBI will step in at regular intervals, and will not be comfortable to see the rupee appreciate beyond the 73.90 to 74.00 band. She expects rupee to trade in the 74.00 to 75.60 band in the near-term.

Rahul Gupta, Head of Research- Currency at Emkay Global Financial Services said the spot was holding the psychological support of 75, however, it broke mainly due to the dollar inflows likely on account of Reliance Jio, and hopes of a V-shape recovery in the global growth.

"All this while, RBI was intervening and sucking out all the dollar inflows, and it may continue doing so. The year long US-China trade war is reigniting and will put some pressure over the safe-haven demand for dollar in Asian trade. We expect the 74.50 to act as a strong support," he added.

The rally in equity markets also supported the rupee. Equity benchmark indices gained for third consecutive session today as the Nifty50 climbed 55.70 points to 10,607.40 and the BSE Sensex was up 177.72 points at 36,021.42.

Source:- moneycontrol.com

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