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CAI lowers export and import estimates for current session.

Date: 12-09-2019
Subject: CAI lowers export and import estimates for current session
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has lowered its import estimate for the season in view of actual shipments reaching Indian ports being lower than estimated previously. Domestic consumption estimated for the entire crop year till 30 September, 2019 is 315 lakh bales (170 kg each) while the exports (excluding cotton waste) for the season is pegged at 44 lakh bales, lower by 2 lakh bales compared to the estimate of 46 lakh bales made during last month and lower by 25 lakh bales compared to the previous year’s exports estimate of 69 lakh bales.

Export of cotton waste was inadvertently included in the export estimate of the CAI made during last month. This mistake has now been rectified and the export estimate has now been lowered by 2 lakh bales. The carryover stock estimated at the end of the season is 15 lakh bales.

There is also a reduction of 2 lakh bales in the projection of import of cotton and the same is now estimated at 29 lakh bales compared to 31 lakh bales earlier. CAI has lowered its estimate of cotton imports for the season in view of actual import shipments reaching Indian ports till end of August 2019 being only 23 lakh bales, which are lower than estimated previously.

CAI has retained its crop estimate for 2018-19 at 312 lakh bales. This is at the same level as in the previous estimate in August for 2018-19 season which began October 1, 2018.

CAI has maintained its cotton crop estimate for the northern zone at the same level as in its previous month’s estimate of 59 lakh bales. However, there is a reduction of 10,000 bales in the estimate for Punjab and an increase of 10,000 bales in estimate for lower Rajasthan.

CAI has also maintained estimate for the central zone at 180.68 lakh bales although there is an increase of 50,000 bales in the crop estimate for Gujarat and a reduction of 25,000 bales each in the estimate of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. But there is no change in the crop estimates of the remaining states, it said.

The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during October 2018 to August 2019 is 363.02 lakh bales, which consists of arrivals of 307.02 lakh bales & imports of 23 lakh bales till August 31, and the opening stock at 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the season. Further, CAI has estimated cotton consumption during October 2018-August 2019 at 288.75 lakh bales, while the export shipment of cotton (excluding cotton waste) upto August 2019 is pegged at 43 lakh bales. The stock at the end of August 2019 is estimated at 31.27 lakh bales, including 17.55 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 13.72 lakh bales with CCI and others.

The annual balance sheet projected by the CAI estimates total cotton supply till end of the season at 374 lakh bales, which is lower by 2 lakh bales compared to the supply estimated in the previous month.

Cotton supply estimated up to September 30, 2019 consists of opening stock of 33 lakh bales at the beginning of the season and estimated imports at 29 lakh bales, lower by 2 lakh bales compared to the estimate of 31 lakh bales made in the previous month.

Source: financialexpress.com

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