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'Nickel prices to get a boost amid uncertainty over Indonesia's plans to ban exports'.


Date: 13-08-2019
Subject: 'Nickel prices to get a boost amid uncertainty over Indonesia's plans to ban exports'
Precious metal prices have rallied for the last two weeks. Gold prices rose 4 percent last week at $1,515 per oz and Silver prices made gains of 4.6 percent trading at $17.05 per oz. There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will initiate additional rate cuts beginning in September and possibly another rate cut in December.

Crude oil prices ended the week with 5 percent losses on heightened trade worries while Nymex natural gas prices traded near lows on expectation that stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf.

The base metal complex continues to trade indecisively due to the additional tariffs to be imposed on China from September 1. Despite the trade worries, metal prices gave a pullback last week with only Zinc being the loser among the base metals. Nickel rallied extraordinarily with 9 percent gains last week on fears on Indonesian raw material export ban.

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Nickel prices hit a high of $16,687 on LME last week, rallying 50 percent so far this year, on speculation that Indonesia might bring forward the nickel ore export ban that is due in 2022, as soon as this year.

Under the regulation, Indonesia permitted relaxation of the five-year ban on nickel ore exports in 2017 giving miners a five year period to build their smelters within the country. The global demand supply scenario also shows supply deficit. Also, the stocks at the LME have fallen to 142,000 tonne, the lowest level since 2013.

Outlook:

If the Indonesian government advances its plan to ban ore export, we may see further upside in Nickel prices this year. Many big battery producers are concerned about the long term supply of nickel as the metal is in high demand due to rising consumption in EV sector.

We expect MCX Nickel prices to remain at Rs 1020 per kg in the near term and extending the rally towards Rs 1,250-1,300 per kg going ahead. However, the rally may subside if there is no immediate announcement of ban on nickel ore exports in Indonesia.

The author is a Commodity Analyst at Narnolia Financial Advisors Ltd.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.​Precious metal prices have rallied for the last two weeks. Gold prices rose 4 percent last week at $1,515 per oz and Silver prices made gains of 4.6 percent trading at $17.05 per oz. There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will initiate additional rate cuts beginning in September and possibly another rate cut in December.

Crude oil prices ended the week with 5 percent losses on heightened trade worries while Nymex natural gas prices traded near lows on expectation that stockpiles should reach a near-normal 3.7 tcf.

The base metal complex continues to trade indecisively due to the additional tariffs to be imposed on China from September 1. Despite the trade worries, metal prices gave a pullback last week with only Zinc being the loser among the base metals. Nickel rallied extraordinarily with 9 percent gains last week on fears on Indonesian raw material export ban.

Nickel prices hit a high of $16,687 on LME last week, rallying 50 percent so far this year, on speculation that Indonesia might bring forward the nickel ore export ban that is due in 2022, as soon as this year.

Under the regulation, Indonesia permitted relaxation of the five-year ban on nickel ore exports in 2017 giving miners a five year period to build their smelters within the country. The global demand supply scenario also shows supply deficit. Also, the stocks at the LME have fallen to 142,000 tonne, the lowest level since 2013.

Outlook:

If the Indonesian government advances its plan to ban ore export, we may see further upside in Nickel prices this year. Many big battery producers are concerned about the long term supply of nickel as the metal is in high demand due to rising consumption in EV sector.

We expect MCX Nickel prices to remain at Rs 1020 per kg in the near term and extending the rally towards Rs 1,250-1,300 per kg going ahead. However, the rally may subside if there is no immediate announcement of ban on nickel ore exports in Indonesia.

The author is a Commodity Analyst at Narnolia Financial Advisors Ltd.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.​

Source: moneycontrol.com

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What is New?

Date: 13-08-2019
Notification No.59/2019 - Customs (N.T.)
Exchange Rates Notification No.59/2019-Custom(NT) dated 13.08.2019.

Date: 13-08-2019
Instruction No. 03/2019-Customs
Recovery of Export benefits given under incentive and Reward Schemes under Chapter 3 of FTP on re-import of export goods.

Date: 10-08-2019
NOTIFICATION No. 32/2019-Customs (ADD)
Seeks to impose anti-dumping duty on imports of "Homopolymer of vinyl chloride monomer (suspension grade)" originating in or exported from China PR and USA for 30 months with effect from 13th August, 2019, in pursuance of SSR investigation by DGTR.

Date: 08-08-2019
Notification No. 57/2019-CUSTOMS (N.T.)
Tariff Notification in respect of Fixation of Tariff Value of Edible Oils, Brass Scrap, Poppy Seeds, Areca Nut, Gold and Silver.

Date: 08-08-2019
Trade Notice 29/2019-20
Online filling of applications for claiming assistance under Transport and Marketing Assistance (TMA) for Specified Agriculture Products Schem

Date: 08-08-2019
Notification No. 58/ 2019-Customs (N.T.)
Further amending Notification No. 12/97-CUSTOMS (N.T.), dated the 2nd April, 1997

Date: 08-08-2019
Circular No. 24/2019-Customs
Clarification regarding applicability of All Industry Rates of duty drawback while fixing Brand Rate of duty drawback in post GST era.

Date: 06-08-2019
Notification No. 31/2019-Customs(ADD)
seeks to amend notification No.12/2019-Customs (ADD) dated the 26.02.2019 as per Corrigenda issued by Designated Authority vide notification F. No. 6/45/2017-DGAD 31.05.2019.

Date: 05-08-2019
Notification No. 56/2019 - Customs (N.T.)
Exchange Rates Notification No.56/2019-Custom (NT) dated 05.08.2019

Date: 05-08-2019
Notification No. 33/2019-Customs (N.T./CAA/DRI)
Appointment of CAA by Pr. DGRI



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