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View: Rupee likely to trade in 70.50-71.50 range.

Date: 26-09-2019
Subject: View: Rupee likely to trade in 70.50-71.50 range
By Gaurang Somaiya

The rupee has gained strength after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman cut corporate tax rates. We expect momentum to extend further towards 70.70 levels, but at the same time a possibility of hit on the fiscal deficit could keep gains in check in the short term.

No major economic numbers are expected this week, but the focus will now shift to the Reserve Bank of India’s policy meet in the first week of October. The USD-INR pair is expected to quote in the range of 70.50 to 71.50 in the short term.

Euro consolidated in a narrow range as most market participants remained cautious after the ECB in its policy statement cut rates by 10 bps and also introduced to consider stimulus by 20billion pounds. Economic calendar from Euro zone also remained muted, which kept volatility low in the currency. Market participants will be keeping an eye on preliminary manufacturing PMI number and ECB President’s testimony before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.

Volatility in the pound continues despite the Bank of England deciding to hold rates at its latest policy meeting. The MPC kept most of its language identical to recent meetings, when it also left monetary policy unchanged. The MPC’s assessment of the economic outlook was weaker than in August, although it expected the UK economy to avoid a recession.

The governor mentioned that it could consider cutting rates only if Brexit related uncertainty increased in the near future. Pound was weighed down after rebounding in the last couple of sessions, as inflation in the UK remained subdued in August. We expect momentum to remain high for pound following more clarity on the Brexit front. The GBP-USD pair is expected to consolidate in the range of 1.2330 to 1.2540.

Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com

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