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View: Rupee may hit 72.50 level in the short term.

Date: 26-02-2020
Subject: View: Rupee may hit 72.50 level in the short term
By Gaurang Somaiya

The rupee after consolidating in a narrow range came under pressure in the last couple of sessions, as the coronavirus outbreak is likely to darken the outlook of the global economy.

On the domestic side, lack of cues kept the volatility low in the currency, but it seems that the Reserve Bank of India is taking full advantage and is building its reserves. Data showed that RBI’s forex reserve for the week ended February 14, rose by another $3.09 billion to $476.09 billion, suggesting that the central bank is ramping its reserves.

Losses in the rupee have remained capped as FIIs continued to pour funds into equity and debt segments. This month, as of now, FIIs have invested around $1.5 billion in the equity segment and $1.48 billion in the debt segment. During the weekend, fresh reported cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran disturbed the overall sentiment of the market. For the week, we expect the USD-INR (spot) to quote in the range of 71.50 and 72.50.

The euro remained under pressure for the whole of the week, but rose on Friday primarily as the dollarNSE -0.32 % witnessed some profit booking at higher levels. Economic numbers released from the euro zone have been in line with expectations and that has kept gains capped in the currency.

In February, the euro fell to the lowest level since April 2017 as the greenback rose following safe haven buying on the back of increased reported cases of coronavirus and deaths in China. This week, from the euro zone, market participants will be keeping an eye on German business climate and German preliminary CPI. Weaker-than-expected economic numbers could continue to keep the currency weighed down against the dollar.

The pound was weighed down against the US dollar, but losses for the currency were capped on Friday after UK factories reported the fastest rise in output for 10 months in February. The manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since April and beat all forecasts, although there were signs that the coronavirus outbreak might have an impact on production in Britain. Marginal gains for the currency were seen after Britain’s new finance minister said he would deliver the budget as planned in three weeks. This week, from the UK, no major economic data is expected to be released, and this could keep the volatility low in the currency. We expect the GBP-USD pair to quote in the range of 1.2830 to 1.3050.

Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com

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