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Expect agri commodities to remain volatile with upward bias: Religare Broking.

Date: 15-06-2020
Subject: Expect agri commodities to remain volatile with upward bias: Religare Broking
Rains in many parts of Central and North-West India had a bearish impact on the market sentiment, even as agri market kept trading with high volatility.

Low volumes in futures markets amidst lack of strong demand in mandis too adversely affected the price movements. However, as mandis gradually opened up, one could witness improved demand. The exports, too, are expected to recover in coming weeks. Supported by a firm dollar versus rupee, one can witness some strong recovery in its demand. This could not only support the agri prices but also favorably affect the volumes in the futures markets.

Spices, which had traded sideways due to lack of export demand, started trading firm last week. Reports are indicating firmness in prices for Turmeric and Jeera based on these expectations. Any closure above Rs 14,120 per quintal may lead Jeera July prices towards Rs 15,000 mark in next 7-10 days. Turmeric too could move towards the psychological Rs 6,000 per quintal mark if it succeeds in breaking Rs 5,700 mark. Rs 5,200-5,250 remains immediate support for the July contract. Dhaniya too may witness immediate psychological resistance at the Rs 6,000 per quintal mark as domestic demand improves on opening of rise in trading activities.

Chana July futures, which earlier faced strong support at the psychological Rs 4,000 per quintal mark, now has an immediate support at the Rs 4,080 mark. Improved domestic demand amidst higher MSP (minimum support price) for kharif pulses and deregulating the Essential Commodities Act are factors that favour the upside movement for the counter in the medium term. Immediate resistance is at the Rs 4,250 mark, breaking which, it can move towards the Rs 4,500 per quintal target.

Edible oils: As more and more countries have started easing lockdowns, there are signs of import demand improving for Malaysian/Indonesian palm oil. The trade relation between India and Malaysia has improved of late, and Indian importers have resumed purchases of Malaysian palm oil last month onwards. Media reports said that large importers have finalized contract worth 2 Lakh tonne of Crude palm oil from Malaysia, during first fortnight of May, which shall be shipped this month and July. As per MPOA (Malaysian Palm Oil Association), production in May month can be lower versus previous month. Production losses in recent months has been mainly due to raising import taxes on edible oils as it seeks to become self-reliant by boosting local oilseed production with the help of tax revenue. This news was bullish for the entire oil complex markets.

Soybean: Strike in Brazil, strength in edible oils and positive global oil seed markets have been supportive for the domestic soybean prices of late. At the same time there are lots of reforms being announced for the Agriculture sector, like amendment of the Essential Commodities Act, involving de-regulation of edible oils and oilseeds, thereby enabling barrier free trade by farmers. Also, deposits are quite less the warehouses against June expiry. Therefore tendency of futures prices to surpass 4000 in coming weeks has increased

RM Seed: Fundamentals are bullish for this commodity. Mustard crop is expected to be lower this year due to heavy rainfall across regions of Haryana and Rajasthan during March and April months. As a result the risk of crop damage has increased. Therefore production is estimated to be lower versus last year. As per traders and farmers possible damage is expected around 20-25% roughly. Procurement from the government has also supported the market in recent months and shall continue supporting as long as procurement continues.

Monsoon progress too remains very critical in the coming weeks. The progress towards Central and North-West India always remains erratic. Even as favorable reports till now have limited any bullish impact, any slowdown in its progress may be an additional supporting factor for the prices.

We expect the price movement to remain volatile this week with an upward bias.

Source:- moneycontrol.com

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