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Crude oil futures cool off from day's high as dollar soars, money managers cut long positions.

Date: 09-03-2021
Subject: Crude oil futures cool off from day's high as dollar soars, money managers cut long positions
Crude oil futures trade steady at Rs 4,838 per barrel on March 8 but cool off from the day’s high as the dollar index surged to a three-and-a-half-month high. The energy commodity had gained after OPEC plus allies have kept production unchanged at its meet on March 4.

The black gold has been trading higher than 5, 20, 50, 100 and 200 days' moving averages on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 76.61 which indicates positive momentum in prices.

The number of rigs drilling crude oil in the US rose from 1 to 310 for the week to March 4, said Baker Hughes in a weekly report. 

The CFTC data showed that money managers decreased net long positions by 3,792 lots last week as prices are nearing the resistance levels.

The US dollar index traded higher at 92.20, up 0.24 percent in the afternoon trade against the major cross.

“Crude oil prices started the month on a strong note as traders and investors caught by surprise by OPEC plus nations' decision on output quota. The OPEC and allied oil producers kept the oil output cut quota unchanged for April against market expectations of a rise in oil output. Crude oil prices surged on tight supply expectations after OPEC meeting as a fall in US oil production has also triggered worries. The stronger-than-expected US private payroll data also boosted buying on fuel demand recovery,” said Tapan Patel- Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities.

West Texas Intermediate crude was down 0.32 percent to $65.88 per barrel, while Brent crude, the London-based international benchmark edged lower by 0.45 percent to $69.05 per barrel.

MCX iCOMDEX Crude Oil Index decreased 11.32 points, or 0.21 percent, at 5,469.29 at 16:00.

In the futures market, crude oil for March delivery touched an intraday high of Rs 4,967 and an intraday low of Rs 4,830 per barrel on MCX. So far in the current series, black gold has touched a low of Rs 3,800 and a high of Rs 4,967.

Crude oil delivery for March slipped Rs 7, or 0.14 percent, to Rs 4,837 per barrel at 16:01 hours IST with a business turnover of 5,836 lots. 

Crude oil delivery for April slides Rs 6, or 0.12 percent to Rs 4,848 per barrel with a business volume of 413 lots.

The value of March and April’s contracts traded so far is Rs 1,262 crore and Rs 25.99 crore, respectively.

Trading Strategy

Tapan Patel- Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities

Crude oil prices rallied on geopolitical tensions on reports of an attack on Saudi oil facilities. Yemen's Houthi forces fired drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia's oil industry on Sunday, including key export hub at Ras Tanura. The operations are unaffected from the attack while crude oil prices witnessed speculative buying in the opening trade.

Crude oil prices are expected to trade sideways to up for the day with resistance at $68 and support at $65 per barrel. MCX Crude oil March has support at Rs 4,850 and resistance at Rs 4,960.


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