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Falling WPI only an improvement, not yet good news: Mythili Bhusnurmath.


Date: 17-08-2022
Subject: Falling WPI only an improvement, not yet good news: Mythili Bhusnurmath
"Whether the trend continues, depends on a whole lot of factors particularly external factors, the weakening of the rupee versus the dollar. There are too many imponderables up in the air," says Mythili Bhusnurmath, Consulting Editor, ET Now.

What is your take on the WPI numbers for the month gone by? Do you expect this trend of inflation data coming down on a month-on-month basis to continue? It is the 16th consecutive month of double digit inflation.

On the inflation front, there has been improvement. I would not call it good news. The trend continues because after the fall in the retail price index that is the CPI to below 7% in July, the wholesale price index is also now down to 13.93%, down from 15.18% in June. But the fact is this is on a fairly high base. On July 21, WPI was 11.57% and so it was fairly high. We need to keep that caveat in mind.

The other caveat really is that the May number for WPI, which came in initially at 15.88% has now been revised upwards to 16.63%. We have to keep these two caveats in mind.

While we are happy to see the WPI come down, as I said, it is only an improvement, it is not yet good news because a lot depends on how things pan out going forward. Oil prices are now $95 to a barrel but one really cannot say how things will pan out because there are fears of a recession but if as the winter months progress and as war in Ukraine continues, we could see oil and gas prices again shoot up.

As of now, it is much too early to say but so far the trend is good news. The other good news is the fact that food inflation, vegetable prices have come down but the monsoon months, the summer months have never been good news for fruits prices, vegetable prices and cereal prices.

So, one really does not know given that the spatial distribution of monsoon is also very important. So as of now, fingers are crossed. It is good news to start with but whether it continues, depends on a whole lot of factors particularly external factors, the weakening of the rupee versus the dollar. There are too many imponderables up in the air. So as of now, one cheer, not even two or three.

Source Name:-Economic Times
 
 
 

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